In 1989, Plan Bleu published its first prospective work “Avenirs du bassin Méditerranéen”, which established several trend and alternative scenarios for the 2000 and 2025 horizons, in order to explore the dynamic relationships between the environment and the economic and social development of the basin. Mediterranean. In 2005, the report “Mediterranean – The perspectives of Plan Bleu on the environment and development” was published, presenting a trend scenario and an alternative scenario for 2025.
As part of a new foresight exercise called MED 2050, Plan Bleu wishes to carry out a study comparing the projections and scenarios of its 2005 foresight report with the real evolution between 2005 and today of the various variables and phenomena addressed in this last report.
The purpose of this document is twofold:
1. Compare the projections of the reference scenario and the alternative scenario of the Plan Bleu 2005 forecast report “Mediterranean – Plan Bleu perspectives on the environment and development” with the actual evolution of the various variables and phenomena.
2. Answer the following questions: What exactly did the 2005 report anticipate? What hadn’t he anticipated? What had he anticipated wrong? And, why ?